Plum trees are in full bloom in Japan. Here isJapan National Diet Library(国立国会図書館).
Unfortunately, this is the only picture. General people are not allowed to taking pictures inside this library. Why I visit? It’s to see whether these days economy is bubble or not. Some analysts say bullish words like « Nikkei 225 will be over 20,000 this year ». Some people talk about stocks in commuter trains and elevators. Young people like early 20s start to be interested in stocks. I can help but feeling « here comes the bubble ».
In today’s market, pharmacy and food sectors pull up Nikkei 225. I don’t mind some indicators like « Forward P/E » when I trade. But many stocks’ « Forward P/E » are already over 30. One of those is <4523>Eisai. The estimated EPS is 71 yen. The stock price is 7,151 yen, as of Mar 14th, 2015. The Future P/E is over 100. Plus, its dividends are 150 yen per a share. Ridiculous!! However, <4523>Eisai is No.1 market leader. From Dec 1st 2014 to Mar 13th 2015, Nikkei 225 goes up 10%(17475.10 to 19254.25), while <4523>Eisai goes up 69%(4230 to 7151). 7 times outperform!! According tonikkei225jp.com, <4523>Eisai contributes 114.65 points rise(6.4%) of Nikkei 225 for these 3 months. Nikkei 225 consists of major 225 stocks. Fabulous performance!! As I posted before, stupid me challenged against No.1 market leader and was beaten. But, i don’t regret. This is my way. Plus, if I stick to short, I feel shivering. Ahahaha. Anyway, Mar 13th 2015, <4523>Eisai drew a huge bearish bar. Nobody knows next week. But, I think this spree is not over. It’s just kicking out chicken traders. I’m buying? No way!! This market is for experts. It’s better to keep out. Show me a sharp hike!!
Anyway, no matter how bullish these days, it’s still under half of that point 38,916.00 on Dec 29th 1989. This 30 years’ Nikkei 225 chart makes every trader sigh. What happened at that time? I want to know. That’s why I visited Japan National Diet Library. I picked up around 10 newspaper books from Dec 1989 to Jan 1990. I turned pages, stopped at every daily front page and skimmed through. Unexpectedly, I found few bullish articles. One of those is « Lucky bags for New Years are on Sale!! ». Eye-popping out. 19,000,000 yen/$135,714($1 = 140yen, as of Dec 1989)!! Plus, I found an advertisement « Real Estate Investment, New York!! Hurry Up!! ». Umm…This is the bubble.
The Last….I took a lunch here at Japan National Diet Library. Curry and Steamed Egg Custard. 570 yen. Cheap is best!!